I didn't lose any money though. But I could have. Plus I seem to be defying Reflection because I am holding two contradictory beliefs at the same time. Maybe, I'm not sure what the explanation is at the moment. Basically what happened is this:

I was fairly confident that the bottom three teams in the Premiership at the moment will be the three that get relegated at the end of the season. Yet I used the BBC Sport Premiership predictor today, which you can find here:

Premier League Predictor

...and it turns out that I really believe that Sunderland will be one of the teams that gets relegated. The predictor simulates the state of the Premiership after you input your predictions for every match between now and the end of the season. I wasn't consciously keeping track of the points as I was doing it, but somehow I thought that Sunderland would probably be safe. Their last game is against Arsenal, and I also believe that probably Arsenal will need to win that game to win the Premiership, so I don't think Sunderland can win or draw it even if their survival depends on it. Strangely enough I predicted that the score would be 2-0 to Arsenal. Really I believe that 1-0 to Arsenal will be enough for them to win the Premiership, and also 1-0 to Arsenal will be enough for Sunderland to stay up, but the Dutch-Book problem doesn't go away because then it would be Bolton that goes down, and not Reading.

Just for some reference, here is the current table:

And here is what I think will go down:

Now maybe I have a way out here... perhaps my two views are consistent. I actually find the above prediction to be extremely extremely unlikely. I'd give it a credence of one in at least a million chance of being correct. The reason it is my prediction is because of all the different possibilities there are (which include unbelievable events like West ham winning the league and Tottenham being relegated [I think]), I think it is the most likely. So perhaps my position could be consistent if even though I think the most likely scenario has Sunderland going down, overall the probability of Sunderland going down is less than that of Reading going down. Seems a bit of a cop-out.